{"id":25080,"date":"2023-05-12T15:38:26","date_gmt":"2023-05-12T18:38:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/?p=25080"},"modified":"2023-05-29T11:45:23","modified_gmt":"2023-05-29T14:45:23","slug":"25080","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/index.php\/2023\/05\/12\/25080\/","title":{"rendered":"NOAA anuncia 90% de chance de forma\u00e7\u00e3o de El Ni\u00f1o"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) atualizou relat\u00f3rio sobre a configura\u00e7\u00e3o do ENOS (El Ni\u00f1o-Oscila\u00e7\u00e3o Sul), para o trimestre maio-junho-julho de 2023. A chance de forma\u00e7\u00e3o do fen\u00f4meno, que era de 62%, no boletim anterior, subiu para 90% no atual (Figura 1, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/blogs\/may-2023-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-knocking-door\">ver link<\/a>). H\u00e1 o indicativo de que, nos pr\u00f3ximos 2 meses, a condi\u00e7\u00e3o de neutralidade do fen\u00f4meno migre para a condi\u00e7\u00e3o de El Ni\u00f1o. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig.1-1024x644.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25081\" width=\"698\" height=\"439\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig.1-1024x644.png 1024w, https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig.1-300x189.png 300w, https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig.1-768x483.png 768w, https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig.1.png 1207w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 698px) 100vw, 698px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Figura 1 \u2013 <\/strong>Probabilidade de forma\u00e7\u00e3o de El Ni\u00f1o nos pr\u00f3ximos meses entre maio-junho-julho de 2023 e dezembro-janeiro-fevereiro de 2024 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/media\/15233\">link<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A Figura 2 apresenta as anomalias de TSM (Temperatura da Superf\u00edcie do Mar) no Pac\u00edfico Equatorial, regi\u00e3o de monitoramento do ENOS. Na \u00e1rea do Ni\u00f1o 3 e 4, de maior influ\u00eancia no clima da Am\u00e9rica do Sul, destacada pelo ret\u00e2ngulo, observam-se anomalias positivas de TSM (tons em vermelho), assim como na \u00e1rea junto \u00e0 costa do Peru (Ni\u00f1o 1 e 2), onde as anomalias de TSM apresentam valores mais elevados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"373\" src=\"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig2-1024x373.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25082\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig2-1024x373.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig2-300x109.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig2-768x280.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig2.jpg 1253w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Figura 2<\/strong> \u2013 Anomalia de Temperatura da Superf\u00edcie do Mar (TSM) no Oceano Pac\u00edfico Equatorial (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\/ensodisc.shtml\">link<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>O fen\u00f4meno ENOS (El Ni\u00f1o-Oscila\u00e7\u00e3o Sul), de escala global, tem duas fases: uma positiva, que chamamos de El Ni\u00f1o, e outra negativa, denominada La Ni\u00f1a. Na Figura 3, a fase de atua\u00e7\u00e3o da La Ni\u00f1a, que perdurou desde outubro de 2020 at\u00e9 o m\u00eas de fevereiro de 2023, \u00e9 indicada na cor azul. O tom vermelho refere-se ao per\u00edodo de TSM mais aquecida, iniciado em mar\u00e7o de 2023. Conforme metodologia utilizada pela NOAA, s\u00e3o necess\u00e1rios tr\u00eas meses seguidos com anomalias de TSM acima de 0,5\u00b0C para que se configure o fen\u00f4meno El Ni\u00f1o, o que deve ocorrer entre maio e junho. Acompanhe a previs\u00e3o clim\u00e1tica da Epagri\/Ciram, para Santa Catarina, no outono-inverno de 2023 (veja <a href=\"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/index.php\/2023\/04\/28\/climatica\/\">aqui<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig3.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25083\" width=\"562\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig3.jpg 764w, https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig3-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig3-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/fig3-600x600.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 562px) 100vw, 562px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00a0Figura 3<\/strong> \u2013 S\u00e9rie hist\u00f3rica de anomalias de TSM na \u00e1rea de monitoramento do Ni\u00f1o 3, entre 2022 e 2023 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\/ensodisc.shtml\">link<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Marcelo Martins, Gils\u00e2nia Cruz, Laura Rodrigues &#8211; Meteorologistas (Epagri\/Ciram)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) atualizou relat\u00f3rio sobre a configura\u00e7\u00e3o do ENOS (El Ni\u00f1o-Oscila\u00e7\u00e3o Sul), para o trimestre maio-junho-julho de 2023. A chance de forma\u00e7\u00e3o do fen\u00f4meno, que era de 62%, no boletim anterior, subiu para 90% no atual (Figura 1, ver link). H\u00e1 o indicativo de que, nos pr\u00f3ximos 2 meses, a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":25084,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"off","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25080","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-notas-meteorologicas","category-publicacoes","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25080","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25080"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25080\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25087,"href":"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25080\/revisions\/25087"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25084"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25080"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25080"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ciram.epagri.sc.gov.br\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25080"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}